Thursday, September 22, 2011

The FOMC Meeting: No tools left

Yesterday the FED released a statement on market conditions and its strategy to ease economic stress. The core issues like unemployment, lack of credit for small caps, mid caps and consumers and depressed housing and CRE markets are still there, with European debt crisis spicing things just a bit more.
Here are some of the highlits of today's release:
  • Economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in job markets
  • Household spending has increased only at a moderate pace.
  • Investment in nonresidential structures still weak and the housing sector remains depressed
  • There are significant downside risks ro the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets (I think it's pretty clear they're talking about Greece the European Union's debt crisis)
It's important to stress that the only sector the FED has seen with constant growth since two years ago is business investment in equipment and software, which sounds logical when we see the quarterly reports from Intel, Microsoft, Micron, Oracle, Kla-Tencor and Marvell, among others (yeah, in a subtle way I'm telling you to look at these tickers and buy 'em... at the right time)

Now, here's why the Standard & Poor's 500 yesterday fell 3% and today 3.19% : FED's "new" strategy is a demerol. Sure, it helps to relief the pain, but it's an opioid. Works just for the moment, thought the disease is still there.

It's one's opinion that buying long term-assets and sell short-term ones to lower the longer-term interest rates is absolutely pointless if the guy at the counter doesn't have any money, nor does he have a job or a credit line.

So from one's point of view, the FED is unwilling to do something big like it did with the TARP. Then again, they had the same attitud during 2008 untill markets collapsed, so my guess is, they won't do much until things get really, really bad. Which shouldn't take long since fellows like Mohammad El-Erian (PIMCO's CEO) today said Europe is already in a recession.

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