Sunday, September 11, 2011

Bernanke's Speech Signals Slower Growth, Way Slower

Following are a few excerpts from Bernanke's speech Yesterday in Minnesota.
Basically the main subject was confirming that economic conditions have deteriorated to a fragile point. But on the other hand, data gathered by the FED still shows growth in some sectors of the economy.
I think the most important subject mentioned was the importance of a recovery in the housing market in order to get America back on track.

Chairman Ben Bernanke:

  • Where do we stand? There have been some positive developments, our banking system and financial markets are significantly stronger. Credit availability has improved, thought it remains tight in (certain) categories.
  • Nevertheless, the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From recent revisions from of economic data, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery weaker than we had previously thought
  • Aggregate output has not returned to the level attained before the crisis... economic growth has been insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate.
  • Some of this weakness can be attributed to temporary factors: run-ups in the prices of oil and other commodities, and the effects of the disasters in Japan.
  • With commodity prices coming off their highs, growth in the second half looks likely to pick up
  • However, incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factor also have been holding back the recovery.
  • FOMC now expects a slower recovery over coming quarters WITH GREATER DOWNSIDE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH
  • One striking aspect is the unusual weakness in household spending... decelerating in the first half of 2011. Households are struggling with high level of unemployment, slow gains in wages, falling house prices and debt burdens... People have become more pessimistic
  • Business sector presents a more upbeat picture.
  • Manufacturing rising importantly by exports
  • Business investment in equipment and software has also continued to expand and corporate balance sheets are healthy.
  • Some surveys by the FED point to weaker conditions recently.
  • Although banking and financial conditions in the U.S. have improved significantly, financial stress continues to drag the recovery.
  • Volatility and risk aversion have reemerged in reaction to concerns about European sovereign debts.
So basically, what the FED is telling us is: "new problems are emerging and situation is quite fragile"

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