Tuesday, September 13, 2011

China to Italy: "We'll make 'em an offer they can't refuse"

I find this graph quite interesting. These are the Italian and Spaniard 10 year bond spreads vs the German 10 year bond. I thought some might find interesting the volume and increase in spreads, mostly hoy the Italian spread is now at almos 400 pts, surpasing the Spaniard spread for the first time.
Actually the only reason yields dropped more than 100 basis points was because of the European Central Bank's intervention when they bought Italian and Spaniard bonds on August 8th. Nevertheless, this help has already been forgotten since yields are back where they were before the ECB's intervention.
That auction helped the country to pay 9 billion Euro of bills maturing on Aug 31, but Italy still faces another 75 billion Euro just this year, and let's be honest, these guys aren't raising enough money to pay those bills.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Italy will default, I'm just saying it's a fact that bad news from Europe will keep on coming in the next months, including possible downgrades.
Besides, let´s not forget that Italy's 1.6 trillion Euro debt represents 25% of the total debt in the EuroZone. So yes, it's far from Greece stands today, but unless they fix it right now, there's a strong chance of big trouble ahead.

These are the 10yr spreads between Italy and Spain bonds vs German Bonds

...And to get some perspective (just to show things are far from Greece's eventual default) here's a comparison between those same spreads, and the Greek spread vs German 10 year bonds



No comments:

Post a Comment